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COVID-19 Could Kill 5M Americans — Why The Worst Case is Likely
On January 15th, COVID-19 showed up in the United States. On February 27, at a time when there were just over a dozen cases, Trump said “When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done”.
Today, we have over 1000 cases, and we haven’t started taking any meaningful action in attempting to contain this outbreak. (As I write this, I’m learning of Trump’s travel ban on people coming from Europe. While this is certainly an action, it will be of limited effect now that the outbreak is already here.)
“It doesn’t even do anything to impact the epidemic…The idea [the travel ban] would reduce transmission here is not based on evidence.” — Lawrence Gostin, Global Health Law Professor, Georgetown University
This is, unquestionably, going to get worse before its gets better. The question is how much worse, and for how long. If Europe is any indication, especially when contrasting the social infrastructures of afflicted nations compared to the United States, the U.S. is going to have a much harder time than just about anywhere else.
